The UVM Economist Behind Bernie’s Job Numbers

When Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign released job numbers for its Green New Deal proposal last fall, projecting it would put 20 million people to work, it raised some eyebrows.

Politico suggested the figures were “outlandish,” while The New York Times cautioned that job growth was “not so simple.”

But University of Vermont professor Jon Erickson, who created the projections, knew the figures were sound: they came directly from economic analyses he’s been doing for decades.

“Any presidential candidate wants to show big job numbers behind their proposals,” said Erickson, a Gund Institute for Environment Fellow from the Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources. “But these are actually modest numbers given the economic transformation needed to confront climate change. As with Roosevelt’s New Deal, the Green New Deal would redefine the economy as we know it.”

Erickson, the Blittersdorf Professor of Sustainability Science & Policy, has long informally advised Sanders’ staff on energy and environmental issues, and over the summer he volunteered to conduct the jobs analysis of the Green New Deal proposal. Using a national economic model of relationships between economic sectors, Erickson analyzed the expenditures of the proposed $16.3 trillion investment over a 10-year planning horizon. The plan’s economy-wide multiplier effects – covering everything from renewable energy development and infrastructure repairs to ecological restoration and climate resilience efforts – added up to a lot of jobs.

Economic modeling is tied to Erickson’s broader research on the environmental and social dimensions of economic transitions, including Vermont’s Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), which he pioneered with colleague Eric Zencey. As an alternative to GDP, policy makers in Vermont and around the country use GPI to consider the broader costs and benefits of different development paths. 

As the Democratic presidential primary enters its pivotal phase, Erickson says the Green New Deal has sparked an outburst of student ideas and enthusiasm. His undergraduate students have researched and pitched Green Mountain Deal proposals to Vermont’s Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman. Graduate students in the Leadership for the Ecozoic (L4E) and Economics for the Anthropocene (E4A) partnerships, international programs he co-leads, are investigating Green New Deal mobilizations in agriculture, energy systems, and more.

“Students already arrive at UVM looking to change the world,” said Erickson, whose E4A and L4E partnerships include over 50 graduate students at UVM, McGill University and York University working on a just transition. “The question is how do we rapidly create a carbon neutral economy with government stimulus and direction, and do it in a way that empowers the most vulnerable communities with justice, jobs, and hope?”

Erickson is also an Emmy award-winning film producer. He directed the 2017 documentary “Waking the Sleeping Giant” on the new progressive movement in the U.S., centered around Sanders’ 2016 run for the Democratic presidential nomination. His previous film, “Bloom,” focused on nutrient pollution and algae blooms in Lake Champlain.

After years of research showing the need for improved climate policies, and a growing chorus of citizens calling for action, Erickson said it increasingly feels as though policymakers are listening.

“For a long time, ecological economics has been calling for an economic transformation that recognizes pollution limits and prioritizes justice,” Erickson said. “The Green New Deal is pushing decades of research on alternative economies into policy conversations beyond the halls of academia.”

Apply now for Gund Postdoctoral FellowshipsUndergraduate Research Awards and a Joint Catalyst Award on rural health and the environment. Learn about ecological economics at UVM.

Source: UVM News

Virus Slam(med?)

A new virus, emergent from Wuhan in central China, seems to be spreading fast. And UVM is responding fast too. “We know these epidemics evolve quickly,” said Cindy Noyes, M.D., (above) an infectious disease specialist who co-leads the University of Vermont Medical Center’s preparations for the potential arrival of novel diseases like SARS, Ebola—and now this coronavirus, 2019-nCoV.

In addition to a careful count of masks and other extensive planning at the hospital, Noyes stressed the value of “temporizing people’s anxiety,” she said. “What is the risk? There’s a lot we don’t understand yet.”

She was speaking to an array of scientists, physicians, and students as part of a first-ever on-campus “virus slam,” on February 6th, organized in just a few days by the university’s Translational Global Infectious Diseases Research Center. Over two hours, some twenty experts, from five UVM colleges and institutes, gave five-minute mini-talks. These stretched from explaining the biochemistry of the virus’s interaction with the human immune system; to interpreting the latest data from the World Health Organization; to pondering the wisdom of an unprecedented effort to bring new vaccines from lab to clinic in sixteen weeks; to noting the eons-long ecological dynamics that have led bats to be key reservoirs of viruses.

The experts were sharing knowledge, challenging forecasting models, reporting out on their own research—and considering what needs to be explored now to best confront this new disease.

A central fact is that these kinds of coronaviruses exhibit “constant recombination,” said UVM molecular biologist Markus Thali—an endless procession of new coats and costumes as they move from wild animals to people and then from person to person, possibly ping-ponging around the globe. Which means the epidemic might get more deadly or fade quickly. So much is unknown. “Welcome to medicine,” said Dr. Noyes to a student in the audience.

Source: UVM News

Artist and Resident

Mildred Beltré’s neighborhood in Crown Heights, Brooklyn, has it all: the sprawling greenery of Prospect Park, world-class art and events at the Brooklyn Museum, beautiful brownstones around every corner, and nearly any cuisine one could crave—all within walking distance. But after 20 years in her apartment, the native New Yorker and UVM professor of drawing and printmaking says the rest of the borough has finally caught on. Gentrification is rapidly transforming Crown Heights. 

For longtime residents like Beltré and Oasa DuVerney, a fellow teaching artist in Beltre’s building, the influx of people and renovations that come with gentrification create a revolving door of fleeting neighbors and businesses; a vulnerability to rent inflation and landlord corruption; increased policing; and a sense of mistrust and suspicion. But the duo isn’t letting their block on Lincoln Place get swallowed up by Brooklyn’s growing hipster scene so easily.

Nearly 10 years ago, the two artists took their art supplies, pop-up tents, tables, and chairs out to the sidewalk in front of their building. Together, they hoped to attract curious passersbys and befriend their neighbors while they made art. Since then, the “Unofficial Official Artists in Residence” of Lincoln Place have evolved the experiment into Brooklyn Hi-Art! Machine, a collaborative public art project that builds gentrification resilience and community on their block through art.

“An important part of the project is being there on the street. Something that happens in gentrification is a lot of policing, and any black or brown body on the street is perceived as criminal. This is a way to claim a generative, creative space on the street together,” Beltré says.

She and her neighbor have taught mediums like weaving, dance, sculpture, drawing and silk screening to their community; they’ve planted gardens and invited guest artists to create site-specific installations on their block; and have hosted barbecues and tenants’ rights meetings through BHAM. They once even set up shop on the street to offer professional sewing and drawing services to their neighbors. Beltré says she hemmed a lot of crop tops for 13-year-old girls that summer while DuVerney sketched everything from portraits and greeting cards to tattoo designs. 

But if you find yourself on her street, you’ll likely see one of their annual works on display roughly one-third of the way down the road, where chain-link fences line a portion of the street and act as a bridge. Each year, Beltré and BHAM weave bright strips of fabric and ribbon into the fences to form powerful phrases like “If you can’t find the truth where you stand / where can you find it?” and “Do not disappear into silence.” 

“Even though it’s a bridge, it acts as an interesting divider on the block. One side is immigrant black people and the other side is American black people. That was a real source of tension on the block. Setting up on this bridge, it becomes a place to come together,” Beltré explains. Residents work together on the fences for about a month and welcome questions and conversation about the bold words from each other and pedestrians. “We tell them we live right there and it really changes the conversation. I think people are used to artists coming in and then leaving, but for us—living there—we’re held more accountable.” 

In the decade that Beltré’s co-spearheaded the project, she says she’s certainly gotten to know her neighbors better, but more importantly, she’s helped build real ties and enact real change in her community. Along the way, BHAM has gained local recognition for the combination of art and social justice issues they tackle. Beltré, DuVerney, and BHAM’s work was recently displayed by the Brooklyn Museum, has appeared in the Brooklyn Children’s Art Museum, and has been awarded a Brooklyn Community Foundation grant to support neighborhood strength.

Source: UVM News

GlobalFoundries and University of Vermont Establish Education Partnership

GlobalFoundries (GF) and the University of Vermont today announced they have created a partnership program which offers Vermont-based GF employees the opportunity to further their education at UVM in undergraduate, graduate and graduate certificate programs at discounted tuition rates coupled with GF’s tuition reimbursement program. For UVM, partnering with one of the largest private manufacturing employers in the state enables the university to further its land grant mission of helping Vermont address its workforce development challenges. It also creates a new pipeline of students to the university and brings experienced professionals into UVM classrooms and labs, broadening and enriching the learning environment for current students.

“This education partnership with the University of Vermont is a great opportunity for our employees to further their education and grow their skill sets to enhance their careers, with discounted tuition rates and leveraging the GF tuition reimbursement program,” said Dr. Thomas Caulfield, CEO, GlobalFoundries. “Our employees will benefit greatly from this partnership built on the excellent academic programming that the University provides. It is also an affirmation of GF’s continued investment in our Burlington manufacturing facility, our world-class workforce and the state of Vermont.”

UVM alumni comprise a strong presence within GlobalFoundries. The company also has a strong recruiting presence on campus, for both full-time employment and summer internships. The partnership agreement further strengthens the relationship between the two entities. Entering into this alliance with GlobalFoundries makes strategic sense for the university in light of all the above reasons as well as the continuing discussions surrounding an expanded strategic partnership between the organizations.

“We are very pleased to launch the first phase of this important partnership and look forward to making our outstanding academic programs available to GlobalFoundries’ employees,” said Suresh Garimella, UVM president. “The partnership lines up well with our commitment to workforce development and our land grant mission of helping grow the number of high-skill, high-wage jobs in Vermont. Integrating working professionals into the academic life of campus is also of great benefit to the university and our students and sets the stage for further collaboration between our organizations.”

Source: UVM News

Leahy, UVM Officials Announce Reestablishment of Northern Forest Research Initiative

Senator Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), Vice Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, has announced new federal funding for research on the region’s forest ecosystem and economy. The Northeastern States Research Cooperative (NSRC), first created by Leahy in the 1998 Farm Bill, received $2 million in the fiscal year 2020 appropriations bill for research on the Northern Forest and its 26 million acres of working landscape. 

“The forest-based economy has underpinned rural communities in Vermont and across the region for generations,” Senator Leahy said. “But securing its future requires sustained investments in ecosystem health, sustainable management, and innovative products. I’m proud to have authored the legislation to create this initiative and to have been able to secure funding to continue its critical research in 2020.  The future of our landscape depends on it.” 

“We greatly appreciate Senator Leahy’s continued support, and applaud the vision which has made him such a powerful voice for the State of Vermont, and a strong advocate for higher education,” said Suresh Garimella, president of the University of Vermont, which plays a leading role in the NSRC. “UVM’s research and educational strengths are underscored by our land grant mission, and we remain committed to being of service to our state.” 

Since its creation in the 1998 Farm Bill, the NSRC has supported cross-disciplinary, collaborative research among the U.S. Forest Service and universities across the Northern Forest states, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and New York. Focusing on the ecological, economic, and cultural challenges facing the forest, NSRC has awarded more than 300 competitive research grants totaling more than $23 million.  

The NSRC had not received federal funding since 2016, however, until Leahy secured $2 million for its reestablishment in the fiscal year 2020 negotiations. The revitalized program will seek input from business, industry, agency, and community leaders to define a research agenda that will support and improve the health of the Northern Forest environment and economy. The expectation is that new projects will begin by early 2021.

Source: UVM News

Safety on the Snow: Professor Karen Westervelt Weighs In On Winter Sports

It’s no secret that Vermonters love snow. The state is known for destination-worthy skiing, snowshoeing and snowboarding, as evidenced by the 1800-member UVM Ski and Snowboard Club — the largest actively student-run organization on the university’s campus — and the Catamount men and women who consistently finish strong in both alpine and Nordic events. While we savor snow sports, we know that sprains, strains and fractures can happen if we overexert ourselves or fail to train properly. 

Rehabilitation and Movement Science Professor Karen Westervelt teaches biomechanics and kinesiology to exercise science students and musculoskeletal evaluation and treatment to physical therapy students. Dr. Westervelt recently accompanied Team USA to the 2020 Biathlon Youth and Junior World Championships in Lenzerheide, Switzerland, serving as a medical volunteer. Biathlon is a Nordic skiing event in which competitors combine cross-country skiing and marksmanship. Excelling in biathlon requires extreme aerobic exertion paired with motionless calm and precision. A nationally board certified orthopedic physical therapy specialist, health and wellness coach, and athletic trainer, Westervelt supports Team USA biathletes by providing care and prevention of athletic injuries to optimize the athletes’ performance.

We talked to Westervelt about how we can best sustain our health and enjoy the snow season to the fullest — and her experience with biathletes.

What techniques or exercises would you recommend that snow sports-enthusiasts adopt into their routines to help prevent injuries throughout the season?

KW: Strength train! Working the same muscles over and over again leads to imbalances. Some muscles are very strong because they get used a lot, whereas other muscles might be weak. An imbalance in force across the joints predisposes an athlete to injury. For example, Nordic skiers use their triceps a lot when poling, so they need to strengthen their biceps in the gym. Their anterior shoulder and core muscles also tend also to be very strong, but the upper back muscles don’t get used as much in skiing and therefore need to be strengthen to maintain balance in the shoulder complex and core. Hitting the gym helps keep an athlete injury-free and makes a more powerful skier.

You’ve worked closely with athletes and have seen quite a few competitions in your capacity as a physical therapist and athletic trainer. What are some of the most common yet preventable injuries you treat?

KW: One common mistake I see is athletes focusing on sport-specific training and not taking the time to cross train and work different muscles. Cross-training is fun and prevents injuries. Do both classic skiing and skate skiing. Try fat biking. Go ice skating. I see a lot of biathletes who only skate ski and end up with overuse injuries by midseason. A common overuse injury among Nordic skiers is anterior compartment syndrome — shin pain — followed by lumbar and thoracic spine pain and shoulder injuries. If anterior compartment syndrome isn’t addressed early, it may lead to a build-up of pressure and pain in the shin, tingling and numbness in the foot, and eventually a loss of control in muscles that flex the ankle. Proper technique and cross-training can reduce the incidence of overuse injuries.

Are there any common errors or avoidable mistakes you tend to see among athletes on race days?

KW: Athletes become vulnerable to injuries when they attempt to do something in competition that is not what they have practiced. The race-day excitement, cheering crowds, racers from all around the world and competitive drive may cause athletes to try something different from practice, like trying to go faster on hills or not taking time to relax into proper position. This tends not work out so well for the athlete. Even experienced athletes at the Biathlon Youth and Junior World Championships will start a distance race too hard and fast and run out of energy before the last lap, or miss multiple targets in a race because they lost focus and did not do what they had prepared over and over in practice. It’s very easy to get caught up in the adrenalin of race day excitement. This is important for recreational athletes, too: Don’t ski a black diamond expert trail until you have practiced turning and stopping on steeper intermediate terrain.

What should winter sports athletes do to prepare for a race or competition in advance, day-of and after competing?

KW: Stay healthy! Make an effort to maintain good physical and mental health during the mid-competitive season. Proper nutrition, rest, mental state, training and coaching all need to come together on race day. Remember the basics, too: Warm up properly before an intense day on the snow. After an event, do an active cool down, refuel and stretch. 

What would you recommend avid winter sport participants to sustain the longevity of their years on the snow?

KW: Learn good technique early on, with lessons or professional coaching. Use smart training practices, including a comprehensive off-season training program that focuses on building muscle strength, cardiovascular endurance, neuromotor coordination and flexibility.

Understand the snow conditions and modify technique accordingly. Icy snow demands a greater muscular co-contraction to provide stability and balance. Know your equipment, maintain it and check it regularly. Wear appropriate safety gear. For alpine athletes, this includes wearing a helmet. Helmets reduce head injuries. 

Finally, recognize the first sign of an injury and seek professional advice. Early intervention with a skilled health care professional such as a physical therapist of an athletic trainer can get you back on the snow quickly and safely and help you peform at your best. 

Source: UVM News

History Lost, Humanity Found

Back in 2010, while conducting research for a book on the fall of the aristocracy during the 1917 Russian Revolution, Douglas Smith ’85 — a Russian historian and author — happened upon some information that both intrigued and puzzled him. It was scrawled in diaries and personal letters written by Moscow’s former elites between 1921 and 1923, a time when they were impoverished and starving.

“They were writing about how the Americans had come to town and — since they could speak English and were fluent in foreign languages — were being hired by the Americans to help with a relief effort. I thought: ‘Well, that’s bizarre; I’ve never even heard of this relief effort. Why is that?’” Smith wondered. Curious, he filed the information away in the back of his mind, intending to return to it someday.

A wing of the Alexander Palace at Tsarskoe Selo, home of Tsar Nicholas II and his family, was converted into an ARA kitchen that fed more than two thousand children a day. The kitchen was run by one of the tsar’s former cooks and several servants of the last Romanovs. (Photo: Courtesy of the Hoover Institution Library and Archive, Stanford University)

Six years and two books later, Smith finally followed up on the mysterious relief effort. Worth the wait, he was “just totally blown away” by what he found: a two-year mission by the United States in the Soviet Union to save some 30 million people from starvation — the biggest humanitarian effort of its time — which had been subsequently all but erased from history less than 100 years later. His recent book “The Russian Job: The Forgotten Story of How America Saved the Soviet Union from Ruin” details the largely untold story about the massive undertaking led by then-Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover and the American Relief Administration.

“It’s not our military might and it’s not the strength of our economy that has made America, in many ways, a fascinating and marvelous country, but it’s the incredible charity and humanitarianism that we have shown at various moments,” Smith says. “I’d hope that by reading this, it may instill in people today this notion that we do have an obligation to help when we can.”

At the height of the famine, Smith estimates that 11 million Soviets were fed by the U.S. each day and that the crisis claimed roughly 6 million lives by its end. Cannibalism was not uncommon, particularly among those in the most devastated villages, where peasants went so far as to exhume and consume fresh corpses from graves and mothers spared families from watching children starve by abridging their inevitable deaths.

Dozens of children kneel in gratitude for American food arriving.

Children kneel in gratitude at the arrival of American corn in the Samara village of Vasilevka on April 10, 1922. (Photo: Courtesy of the Hoover Institution Library and Archive, Stanford University)

But with no more than $60 million and 200 aids deployed at any given time, the U.S. was able to cover more than one million square miles of territory suffering from severe drought and fallout of Vladimir Lenin’s revolution. American aids hired roughly 125,000 Soviets across the country to translate and disperse supplies.

“In terms of the dollar amount and in terms of the number of American men involved, it was actually a shoestring operation. But in terms of its scale, scope and the number of people it was feeding, it was enormous. This was the biggest ever in history at the height of the mission; it was huge,” Smith says. So why don’t most people know about it?

On Russia’s end, “the Soviet government was profoundly ashamed that they needed the help of capitalist America” to prevent collapse following their 1917 revolution to communism, the author explains. “And as far as the United States goes, I think it chiefly has to do with the fact that Herbert Hoover’s reputation was largely in tatters during his presidency.” His role in the Great Depression was followed shortly after by Soviet tension during the Cold War. “We as a country did not want to be reminded of the fact that we had worked in helping them stabilize their government through this famine relief effort,” he says.

Thousands of bags of American grain stacked in a warehouse in the early 1920s.

An American Relief Administration warehouse in New York City with supplies awaiting transport to Russia. (Photo: Courtesy of the Hoover Institution Library and Archive, Stanford University)

Smith’s book, named one of the Best History Books of 2019 by the “Financial Times,” follows the accounts of four real American men who transcribed their various efforts across the Soviet Union in personal letters back home and diaries. It paints the bigger picture of the tragedy and impressive mission alongside the men’s personal encounters with bandits, grueling sights and horrors, love stories and brushes with typhus and other famine-related diseases. In fact, Smith even toyed with the idea of writing the book as a story complete with characters, plot and narrators. “But then the more I was reading about the famine and about the horrors, I knew that if I did this as a novel, people would not believe me. They would think I was exaggerating for dramatic effect,” he says.

All’s well that ends well, though, as Smith believes no fictional character could have championed the groundbreaking operation better than one who spearheaded it in reality. “Hoover himself said it best. He said: ‘I don’t care what the political system may be in any given country, if there are people starving and we have the resources to help ease their suffering and to save lives, we have a moral obligation to do that.’”

Source: UVM News

UVM’s Bernard Wins Prestigious Christopher Isherwood Prize in LA Times Book Prizes Competition

University of Vermont English professor Emily Bernard has won the prestigious Christopher Isherwood Prize for autobiographical prose in the Los Angeles Times’ 2020 Book Prizes competition for her 2019 book, “Black Is the Body.”

The panel of judges awarding her the prize said, “With deceptively simple and luminous prose, Emily Bernard invites us to inhabit her life as she poses perilous questions seemingly as simple as ‘when is a doll just a doll,’ and pushes ever deeper refusing easy solutions. This is a beautiful, important collection of essays.”

The Los Angeles Times announced that Bernard had won the Isherwood Prize this week. She will accept it in Los Angeles on April 17 with winners in other categories.

The Los Angeles Times award is just the latest accolade for “Black Is the Body.”  Maureen Corrigan, the book critic for NPR’s Fresh Air, named it one of her 10 favorite books of 2019. It’s also slide #1 in Kirkus Reviews’ list of Best Books of 2019 to Fight Racism and Xenophobia. And notices in In Style, Publishers Weekly and Entertainment Today were among the many positive reviews the book has received.

Bernard is a professor of Critical Race and Ethnic Studies at UVM and was recently named the Julian Lindsay Green & Gold Professor of English.

See Emily Bernard read from “Black Is the Body” here.

Source: UVM News

When Coronavirus Is Not Alone

Interacting contagious diseases like influenza and pneumonia follow the same complex spreading patterns as social trends. This new finding, published in the journal Nature Physics, could lead to better tracking and intervention when multiple diseases spread through a population at the same time.

“The interplay of diseases is the norm rather than the exception,” says Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, a complexity scientist at the University of Vermont who co-led the new research. “And yet when we model them, it’s almost always one disease in isolation.”

When disease modelers map an epidemic like coronavirus, Ebola, or the flu, they traditionally treat them as isolated pathogens. Under these so-called “simple” dynamics, it’s generally accepted that the forecasted size of the epidemic will be proportional to the rate of transmission.

But according to Hébert-Dufresne, professor of computer science at the University of Vermont, and his co-authors, Samuel Scarpino at Northeastern University, and Jean-Gabriel Young at the University of Michigan, the presence of even one more contagion in the population can dramatically shift the dynamics from simple to complex. Once this shift occurs, microscopic changes in the transmission rate trigger macroscopic jumps in the expected epidemic size—a spreading pattern that social scientists have observed in the adoption of innovative technologies, slang, and other contagious social behaviors.

Star Wars and sneezing

The researchers first began to compare biological contagions and social contagions in 2015 at the Santa Fe Institute, a transdisciplinary research center where Hébert-Dufresne was modeling how social trends propagate through reinforcement. The classic example of social reinforcement, according to Hébert-Dufresne, is “the phenomenon through which ten friends telling you to go see the new Star Wars movie is different from one friend telling you the same thing ten times.”

Like multiple friends reinforcing a social behavior, the presence of multiple diseases makes an infection more contagious than it would be on its own. Biological diseases can reinforce each other through symptoms, as in the case of a sneezing virus that helps to spread a second infection like pneumonia. Or, one disease can weaken the host’s immune system, making the population more susceptible to a second, third, or additional contagion.

When diseases reinforce each other, they rapidly accelerate through the population, then fizzle out as they run out of new hosts. According to the researchers’ model, the same super-exponential pattern characterizes the spread of social trends, like viral videos, which are widely shared and then cease to be relevant after a critical mass of people have viewed them.

Dengue and antivaxxers

A second important finding is that the same complex patterns that arise for interacting diseases also arise when a biological contagion interacts with a social contagion, as in the example of a virus spreading in conjunction with an anti-vaccination campaign. The paper details a 2005 Dengue outbreak in Puerto Rico, and Hébert-Dufresne cites an additional example of a 2017 Dengue outbreak in Puerto Rico where failure to accurately account for the interplay of Dengue strains reduced the effectiveness of a Dengue vaccine. This in turn sparked an anti-vaccination movement—a social epidemic—that ultimately led to the resurgence of measles—a second biological epidemic. It’s a classic example of real-world complexity, where unintended consequences emerge from many interacting phenomena.

Although it is fascinating to observe a universal spreading pattern across complex social and biological systems, Hébert-Dufresne notes that it also presents a unique challenge. “Looking at the data alone, we could observe this complex pattern and not know whether a deadly epidemic was being reinforced by a virus, or by a social phenomenon, or some combination.”

“We hope this will open the door for more exciting models that capture the dynamics of multiple contagions,” says Hébert-Dufresne, a member of UVM’s Complex Systems Center. “Our work shows that it is time for the disease modeling community to move beyond looking at contagions individually.”

And the new study may shed light on the spread of coronavirus. “When making predictions, such as for the current coronavirus outbreak occurring in a flu season, it becomes important to know which cases have multiple infections and which patients are in the hospital with flu—but scared because of coronavirus,” Hébert-Dufresne says. “The interactions can be biological or social in nature, but they all matter.”

Source: UVM News